Bajaj Finserv looks good for next upmove!

Bajaj Finserv (BAJAJFINV) is in steady uptrend for last one year. The stock made a life high of 1416 recently. The stock i making flags & pennants after each up move for last one year.

After making a high of 1416  recently, the tock is again forming continuation pattern & now looks to start an up move again. all the indicators look to be cooled off the stock looks to have taken support near 1260. Volume also reduced during sideways movement & was low on correction days. So we recommend going long in the stock around 1300 level for targets of 1400 & 1450 with stop below 1260.

Nifty update!

This is what we wrote on Nov 30, in our last free nifty update & now nifty is trading around 8000. Our free update earned more than 400 nifty points in just a period of 10 days. To subscribe contact us on prajfinancials@gmail.com with your contact details & we will contact you.

Symmetrical triangle formation in ACC!

After making an life high of high of 1564.65 in Sept. (ACC) is consolidating in the range of  1350 to 1550 for last 3 months. In this period nifty has risen by more than 5%, ACC has given negative returns.

If we look at the chart, we can clearly see symmetrical triangle formation in the stock. Its a consolidation pattern before starting a new trend up or down. As far a s ACC is concerned, the break out of the pattern comes around 1440 on the downside & 1520 on upside. So if the stock close above 1520 long positions should be initiated for targets of 1580 & 1640 with a stop of 1485. However weekly charts definitely show some strength in the stock which looks to force the stock break out on upper side. So we recommend taking some risk & buying the stock at cmp for targets of 1580 & 1640 with stop of 1458. But if stock tumbles & closes below 1440 then short position can be initiated for targets of 1390 & 1360 with stop of 1480.

Nifty update

I am taking this opportunity to present my view on long term nifty chart. On Friday the index has given highest weekly & monthly close to  date. It also made a new all time high of 8617.

As seen in the above chart, nifty has completed 100% extension of the Oct 2008 to Nov 2010 rally if calculated from Dec 2011 low around 8620. So we can say that nifty is likely to top out this month. However this is just a probability based on the Fibonacci extension. There is no other sign signalling that the uptrend is over.

In fact, weekly & daily charts are still showing strong uptrend momentum. Although on weekly chart, nifty has touched the up trending resistance line on Friday, momentum indicator in favor of bulls. If 8630 is protected this week on upside, uptrend is likely to be paused. But the confirmation of beginning of correction will come below 8420. 

Forex update

EURUSD

The  pair looks to be in the consolidating in a price range before starting next move. If it trades above above 1.2____, it can go up to 125600. On the other hand if it trades below 1.2____, it can resume its downtrend towards 1.23000.

Container Corporation ready to blast?

Container Corporation (Concor cmp 1339) is trading in a range for last four months. Its a low volume high volatility stock. Although its trading in a range for last four months, the range is almost Rs. 200 due to high volatility.

On weekly charts, the stock is forming a bullish flag pattern. Close above 1450 will confirm the break out which can take stock to 1600 levels in the short to medium term. So we recommend to buy the stock at cmp 1340 for targets of 1440 & 1600 with a stop below 1270. Long term investors can hold the stock for target of 1800 with a stop below 1200.

Short term double bottom forming in CESC!

CESC ha been in uptrend for last one year. The stock has given more than 100% returns in last one year.. Its 52 week high low stands at 827 & 340 respectively.

After making a high of 827 in September, the stock has corrected significantly upto the levels of 645. The stock has bounced from the levels of 645 twice in last 10 trading sessions to form a short term double bottom. Its neckline stands around 693. Its most likely that the stock would go further up break out of the pattern. Declining volumes on correction & rising volumes on accumulation also supporting the view. So we recommend going long in the stock if it closes above 694 for targets of 740 & 770 with stop below 670 on closing basis. 

Arvind looks good for going long!

Arvind (cmp 300) has been the outperforming stock in broader market in last one year. The stock has given returns of 200% in lat one year. Recently the stock corrected almost 80 points from its high of 341 & completed 61.8% retracement of  last up move after sideways correction in July.

It looks like the stock has made a short term bottom near 265 & ready to go further upwards to new highs above its high of 341. So we recommend going long in the stock at cmp for targets of 323 & 352 with stop below 285.

Triangular break out in Ambuja Cement!

Ambuja Cement (NSE cmp 206) is trading in a range of 20 pts for last three months. Although  the index made a life time high in this time period, Ambujacem did not. It continued to make a triangular trading range.

It seems the stock has broken the triangular pattern on the downside. Daily RSI is also signalling weakness in the stock. Sudden increase in volume compared to last few trading sessions also supporting the view. We recommend selling the stock below 204 for targets of 196 & 185 with stop above 213.85. However if prices reverse & close above 214, long trade can be initiated for targets of 220 & 228 with stop below 207.

Reliance Capital on support line

Reliance Capital is a high volatility stock. Its yearly high/low is 669.9/289.5. The stock had rallied from levels of 300 to 665 within the period of 4 months.

But since mid-June the stock has been in consolidation phase & traded in the range of 670 to 535. Declining volumes in lat 2 months clearly indicate the consolidation phase. The stock has almost retraced 38.2% of its previous rally & looks to have found support around 535. From here it is likely to move toward recent high of 670. So the stock could be bought for targets of 625 & 665 with a stop of 535 on closing basis.

Nifty update

Last week nifty gave positive close on all the four trading sessions thereby negating the down effect of previous two weeks & retracing almost back to all time high of 7840.

Now nifty is at very crucial level of 7800. Next two trading sessions are going to be very important for the index. If it closes above 7810 on Monday then 7870 is likely to be reached in next 2-3 sessions. However if the index closes below 7750 which is unlikely event in current readings of charts, the index could again go down to 7600. The basic theory of TA says,"Never go against the trend." The trend currently is uptrend. o it is better to trade long in the nifty for target of 7870 with stop of 7750.

Nifty update

In the last post, we published monthly, weekly & daily outlook on nifty. In the daily outlook, we had mentioned 7200 level could act as a strong support & one could go long around 7240 with a stop of 7190. Nifty  made a low of 7239 & raced to 7592 finally to close at 7583 giving a profit of almost 350 points.

Although nifty is touch short of 7600, it still looks to be strong. Look at the  increased volume activity in the recent trading sessions. It is indicating definite strength in the index. So we recommend to hold on to the long positions with a stop of 7440.

Possible flag breakout in Bhartiartel

The chart above shows daily movement of Bhartiartel. The stock made a significant low of 281.9 Feb 24 & Mar 5 respectively. The stock risen 25% since then. For the month of May the range for the stock has been 305 to 350. But in last 8 days the stock has been in range of 20 points making a flag pattern on daily charts. However the stock looks to be breaking out the the flag in the upward direction. So I recommend to buy the stock above 350 for tragets of 370 & 385 with a stop 335.

Nifty update

In this post, I am trying to give long term , medium term & short term outlook based on my technical study of Nifty.
  

The above chart shows monthly movement of the index for last 10 years. We can clearly see & know as well that nifty had  a terrific bull run from 2003 to 2007. During this period investors wealth was raised  at least 6 times.

Then followed a year of sharp correction in 2008 & recover to earlier highs in the year 2009 & 2010. Since the the index was in big sideways trend going down to 4500 in Dec 2011 & rising up to 6400 in Dec 2013. But the index could not break the previous high or lows significantly.   So the entire movement from 2008 to 2013 can be considered as a sideways trend.

However Since Feb 14, nifty has risen sharply to make new significant all time high of 7563 which is almost 20% above the previous all time high of 6415. So I want want to state here that nifty has broken out of sideways trend upwards & started the bull run again. Besides price, there are other evidences to support this study. Break out should be supported with higher volumes near resistance zone. We saw strong price movement with volume support from Feb to early April & low volume activity during consolidation in next 15 days. In short Strong up day have been big volume days & consolidation or strong down days have been low or average volume days in last 6 months. signalling buying interest of investors. However good break out should also be followed up by significant pull back to the support zone. In the case of nifty 6350 to 6500 is a good support zone. So recommend parking your money for valuable gains around 6500.

 

Weekly chart above signals some correction due after a strong up move. 7200 could act as a short or medium term support. But break below 7200 on closing basis can lead nifty to short term support of 7050 or medium term support of 6850.    

 

The daily chart above also shows nifty in a overbought zone & due for correction. Break of 7200 on closing basis should take nifty to 7050 in the next week itself. However as the trend is still up, buyers can initiate long positions around 7240 keeping stop of 7190.

Nifty update

Nifty is trading above 7200  for last seven trading sessions now during which it made an all time high of 7563 on 16th May & today it almost tested the all time high in the morning & then corrected sharply to close at 9359.

Although nifty closed almost 150 points below the intraday high, uptrend is still intact for the premier index as long as 7200 is not broken. However there are sighs of correction but those are not confirmed yet. So any dip should be used to initiate long positions with 7200 as a stop.
On stock specific L&T, M&M are still looking good for long positions & Wipro & IDFC are weaker stocks in the index so should be used to initiate short positions.

Nifty update

Last week nifty opened at 6723 again made a new all time high touching 6775 on Thursday but could not hold the new high & corrected to close below 6700 at 6694.

Although nifty has made a new all time high last week, it formed red candles on all the trading days. In fact nifty has made kind of shooting star candle on weekly charts as well indicating some weakness.Nifty made a low of 5933 on Feb. 4. Since then nifty has rallied more than 800 points in two months time almost 15%. So a correction is definitely due. Momentum indicators are also signalling correction. However confirmation will come only below 6670. So i'd recommend going short on the index below 6670 levels for targets of 6640-6590 with a stop of 6715. Low risk traders can buy 6700 put around 75 for targets of 90-125 with stop of 54. On stocks front Axis bank can be shorted below 1420 for targets of 1400-1380 with stop of 1439. Low risk traders can buy Axisbank put around 28 for targets of 36-45 with stop of 19.